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The author argues that Matt Yglesias's story of Clinton's fiscal discipline producing the 1990s boom flattens a messy history. Drawing on Clinton-era economists' own reports, he says tech, the Cold War peace dividend, and luck mattered at least as much as deficit cuts.
- Clinton did not freely choose deficit reduction; he reluctantly gave up his investment agenda after internal fights and pressure from bond markets and the Fed.
- The Clinton administration's 2001 Economic Report credits technology, business reorganization, and policy together, with growth itself helping shrink the deficit.
- Oliner and Sichel estimated IT drove roughly two-thirds of the late-1990s productivity acceleration, and defense spending fell about 30 percent in real terms between 1988 and 1997.
- Blinder and Yellen, both Clinton economists, credit fiscal policy but repeatedly fall back on supply shocks, stock market gains, and a cooperative Fed.